2011 NCAA Tournament Guide: How to Fill Out Your Bracket

With apologies to Andy Williams and Johnny Mathis—forget Christmas. We are now entering “the most wonderful time of the year!”

For the next three weeks, the attention of the sports world will be turned to the NCAA tournament, or as I like to call it, Shangri-La on a high-def, flat screen. Storylines and superstars abound as they do every March, and this year, for the first time, three more teams have been thrown into the madness.

Debating the merits of a 68-team field is not what this column is about, however. No matter what your opinion is on the NCAA deciding to (cough, cough “screw up the most perfect thing in all of sports for the sake of making more money” cough, cough) one positive that comes out of the expanded field is obvious: more basketball.

Consider this your guide to the 2011 tournament. It’s a primer on some names and teams you should know to help you fill out your bracket, (which you can download and print out by clicking the PDF to the right). Pay attention, and you might finally beat the secretary in your office pool who makes her picks based on places she wants to visit one day. Oh, who am I kidding? She’s still liable to clean your clock!

The action kicks off Tuesday, March 15, and Wednesday, March 16, with two play-in games each night, which will be played in Dayton, Ohio. Thursday, March 17, the Round of 64 begins with regional games in Tampa; Washington, D.C.; Denver; and Tuscon, Arizona. Friday, March 18, the Round of 64 continues with regional games in Charlotte, North Carolina; Tulsa, Oklahoma; Cleveland; and Chicago.

The Top Line Teams (No. 1s)
After the conclusion of the conference tournaments, the four No. 1 seeds were pretty obvious. The stat that is beaten into the ground every year is done so with good reason: No 16-seed has ever beaten a 1-seed. The top dogs are 104-0 since the tournament expanded to 64 teams 26 years ago. There’s no reason it should be any different this year.

But that doesn’t mean the top seeds are unbeatable. Unlike 2008, when all four No. 1s made it to the Final Four (the only time that has happened in the tournament’s history), Ohio State, Kansas, Duke and Pittsburgh have all stumbled at multiple points this year.

So who has the easiest road to Houston? It’s gotta be Pittsburgh. Playing in the ultra-rugged Big East, the Panthers are battle-tested against any team, any style. And the other high-ranked seeds in this region (Florida, BYU, Wisconsin, Kansas State) all have their warts.

Toughest Region
So if Pittsburgh has the easiest road, who has the toughest? That honor (if you can call it that) definitely belongs to Ohio State in the East Region. Not only could they face a very good George Mason team in the Round of 32, the rest of the region reads like a pantheon of the college basketball elite: North Carolina, Kentucky, Syracuse. Each one of these teams (including 5-seed West Virginia as well) has the talent and coaching to make a long run.

Why Not Just Pick Chalk?
The term “going chalk” or “picking chalk” basically just means picking the highest seed to win, no matter what your feelings are on the game or the teams. It is true that statistically, you have the highest probability of getting more games right if you apply this method. But be warned, it also makes you a huge tool. Any trained chimp can fill out a chalk bracket, but the fun of the office pool lies in predicting upsets and then gloating to your co-workers about it the next day. Because if there’s one thing that the tournament should create, it’s a healthy disdain for others and a toxic work environment!

Another reason to not pick chalk is that office pools everywhere have different formats and scoring methods. Some pools are simply a sum games format, meaning the person with the most correct picks wins. But others offer bonus points for certain upsets, and multiplying scores for higher rounds. And it’s in these pools where nabbing a double-digit seed Cinderella to knock off a few big dogs could put you in the driver’s seat. Know your format and scoring system. It’s imperative.

The Art of the Upset
It’s been a longtime trend in the tournament, dating as far back as I can remember in my 20-plus years of watching college hoops: A 12-seed almost always upsets a 5-seed in the first round. Last year, Cornell tore down Temple, and in 2009, three 12-seeds turned the upset trick against 5s.

This year, 5-seed Kansas State looks ripe for the picking against 12-seed Utah State. In mid-January, the Wildcats were well below .500 in the Big 12 and were not even being talked about as a tournament team. A late-season turnaround, including an upset of then-No. 1-ranked Kansas in February, made them tourney viable. But let’s not forget, this is a team that lost not once, not twice, but three times to Colorado, a team that many feel was unfairly left out of the Big Dance.

Then Again, the 13-4 Upset Is the New 12-5
While people will clamor to try and pick a 12-5 upset, the best value might be found a few spots down on the bracket. Since 2005, there have been nine 12-5 upsets in the tournament. Over that same time span, there have been seven 13-4 upsets, including the University of San Diego’s buzzer-beater which beat UConn in 2008. There have also been two 14-3 upsets over that same time span.

It’s the 13-4 matchups that really pique my interest. Oakland, the champion of the Summit League, is a team loaded with seniors who have tournament experience. And one of those is Keith Benson, a 6-11 center who many experts think will be a first-round draft pick. Benson averages 18 points, 10 rebounds and 3.8 blocks per game. Not your run-of-the-mill 13-seed. They face a Texas team that is in a late season swoon and hasn’t been able to get enough consistent scoring of late.

Another matchup to watch is in the Southeast, where 4-seed Wisconsin faces Belmont, champs of the Atlantic Sun Conference. The Bruins are loaded with shooters, and average 80 points a game, while holding opponents to only 62.5. They have the picture perfect recipe for springing an upset. Their big men are formidable enough to demand attention, which leaves their shooters free to roam behind the 3-point arc, get kick outs, square up and fire. And as Wisconsin can attest after Ohio State knocked down an incredible 14 of 15 three-pointers against them a week ago Sunday, perimeter defending isn’t really their strong suit.

How Far Can SDSU Realistically Go?
Pessimistic answer: far. Optimistic answer: really far. The Aztecs use their long, athletic frontline of Billy White, Kawhi Leonard and Malcolm Thomas to frustrate opponents. They crash the glass like a stuntman and can really lock you down on defense.

The draw sets up nicely for them as well. In the first round, they face first-time tournament party crashers UNC—no not that UNC, the University of Northern Colorado. After that, neither Temple nor Penn State poses much of a threat, and a potential Sweet 16 matchup with UConn could be a classic. Reaching the West Regional Final is definitely a possibility. Beyond that, who knows?

Speaking of San Diego ...
There are several San Diego natives playing on teams in the tournament field. Keep track of these guys, and impress your friends with insider knowledge.

–Malcolm Thomas, SDSU forward (San Diego City College/Crawford HS)
–James Rahon, SDSU guard (Torrey Pines HS)
–Jeff Withey, Kansas center (Horizon HS)
–Russell Wooten, Villanova guard (St. Augustine HS)
–Jamelle Horne, Arizona forward (San Diego HS)
–Christian Peterson, UC Santa Barbara guard (Carlsbad HS)
–Tyler Steinhause, UC Santa Barbara guard (Scripps Ranch HS)
–Troy Leaf, UC Santa Barbara guard (Foothills Christian HS)
–Marquise Carter, Gonzaga guard (Horizon HS)
–AJ Yawn, Florida State guard, (El Camino HS)

Other Players to Watch
Sometimes, all it takes is one special player to make a deep tournament run. In 1988, Danny Manning was pretty much a one-man show in leading Kansas to a national title. The Jayhawks were also on the receiving end in 2003, when freshman Carmelo Anthony carried an inexperienced Syracuse team to a win over Kansas, for coach Jim Boeheim’s first title. And while basketball is a team game, having one supernatural player can really help your chances at winning. Here are a few guys to keep your eye on:

• Harrison Barnes, North Carolina. Only a freshman himself, Barnes has had an up-and-down season. But he’s poised, confident and has shown the propensity for taking (and making) clutch shots, with three game-winners on his resume already. He dropped 40 points in the Tar Heels comeback win over Clemson in the ACC semis.
• Derrick Williams, Arizona. Maybe the most unheralded superstar in the country, the 6-8 sophomore is a rugged rebounder with incredible athleticism and a silky-smooth jumper. The sophomore makes more than 60 percent of his three-point attempts, although he doesn't shoot a lot of them, and serves up more double-doubles than In-N-Out.
• JaJuan Johnson/E’Twuan Moore, Purdue. These seniors are a high-scoring duo with loads of big game experience as they led the Boilermakers to 25 wins and a second-place finish in the Big 10. Johnson (20 ppg) is a lanky big man with a soft touch. Moore (18 ppg) is a strong, shifty guard who has deep range but can get to the rim as well. Stopping one of them is improbable, stopping them both is near impossible. Despite a surprising loss to Iowa in their regular season finale, Purdue has been a consistent team, capable of beating anyone on any night.

Team No One Is Talking About That Can Cut the Nets Down
Michigan State—it’s been an admittedly disappointing year for Tom Izzo’s crew, but the man knows how to coach in March. And the Spartans still have a team loaded with talent and experience in Kailin Lucas, Draymond Green and Durrell Summers. Let’s not forget the two straight Final Fours for Sparty as well.

This Year's George Mason
We all remember 11-seed George Mason's Cinderella charge through the likes of Michigan State, North Carolina, UConn en route to the Final Four in 2006, the highest seed ever to make a run that far. So are there any contenders for this year's glass slipper?

I'm going to stick with Belmont. They can score points in bunches and only have one loss since December. They've stood toe-t0-toe with Tennessee twice this year, losing in Knoxville by a single point on Dec. 23. They aren't afraid of any big challenges. And with their draw of Wisconsin, and potentially Kansas State and Pittsburgh, while they would be difficult obstacles to overcome, this team has the moxie to pull it off.

So there you have it. While, I could go on for another 1,500 words, you've got brackets to fill out and games to watch. Don't forget to print out your bracket on the attached PDF. I wish you the best of luck. And one more thing: Don't be a weasel. Fill your bracket out in pen.